Taking Stock of the Progress of Five Top Cryptocurrency ETF Applications: Who is Most Likely to be Approved?

Original Article Title: "The New Wave of Crypto ETFs: 2025 Latest Application Progress and Outlook"

Original Article Author: Spirit, Golden Finance

Introduction

As the cryptocurrency market matures, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have become a crucial bridge between traditional finance and digital assets. This article summarizes the latest progress on crypto ETF applications, covering the applying institutions, feasibility analysis, underlying asset overview, token price performance over the past month, as well as the SEC's review and response timelines, providing readers with comprehensive market insights and future outlook.

1. Overview of the Latest Crypto ETF Application Progress

As of February 19, 2025, the crypto ETF market continues to heat up, especially after Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were approved, leading to more institutions applying for ETFs for other cryptocurrencies. Here are the key developments:

ADA (Cardano) Spot ETF

Applicant / Institution: Grayscale Investments Progress: Grayscale submitted the world's first ADA spot ETF application to the U.S. SEC in the second week of February 2025. Following the announcement, ADA's price surged by 16% at one point. The application is currently in the SEC's preliminary review stage. Final response and review period: The SEC typically has a 45-day initial response period after receiving an application (until around March 25, 2025), which can be extended to 90 days (around May 10, 2025).

XRP Spot ETF

Applicant / Institution: Bitwise Asset Management, Grayscale, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Canary Capital Progress: Bitwise formally submitted an XRP spot ETF application through the Cboe BZX exchange in February 2025, with the SEC confirming receipt on February 18. Grayscale, 21Shares, and other institutions also submitted similar applications from late 2024 to early 2025, all of which are currently under review. Final response and review period: Taking Bitwise as an example, the SEC must provide an initial response within 45 days (around April 4, 2025), which can be extended to 90 days (around May 19, 2025).

SOL (Solana) Spot ETF

Applicant / Institution: VanEck, Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, Canary Capital Progress: Multiple institutions plan to submit SOL spot ETF applications from late 2024 to early 2025, with Grayscale's and VanEck's applications already in a 21-day public comment period. Final Response and Review Period: For example, after the comment period, SEC will provide an initial response within 45 days (around late March 2025) for Grayscale, which can be extended to 90 days (around mid-May 2025).

LTC (Litecoin) Spot ETF

Applicant / Institution: Grayscale, Canary Capital, Nasdaq (on behalf of undisclosed issuers) Progress: Nasdaq submitted an LTC spot ETF application on January 29, 2025, and SEC has accepted it for a 45-day initial review (until around March 15, 2025). Grayscale's and Canary Capital's applications are also progressing concurrently. Final Response and Review Period: The initial response deadline is March 15, 2025, which can be extended to 90 days (around April 29, 2025).

DOGE (Dogecoin) Spot ETF

Applicant / Institution: NYSE Arca (on behalf of undisclosed issuers), Grayscale Investments, Bitwise Asset Management, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Canary Capital Progress: The DOGE ETF applications submitted in early 2025 are still in the early stages, with the SEC not providing further details publicly, leading to slower progress. Final Response and Review Period: Anticipated 45-day initial response period (around mid-March 2025), extendable to 90 days (around late April 2025).

II. Feasibility Analysis

The feasibility of crypto ETFs is influenced by regulation, market demand, legal risks, and technological maturity:

Regulatory Environment

Positive Factors: SEC's new leadership (Paul Atkins) is more crypto-friendly, with expectations of relaxed policies in 2025. Success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs sets a precedent for other currencies. Challenges: SOL and XRP have faced SEC scrutiny as "securities" and need to clarify their legal status; ADA and LTC have a higher probability of approval due to their decentralized nature; DOGE faces greater uncertainty due to its meme attributes. Likelihood of Approval (Bloomberg Analyst Prediction): LTC (85%), ADA (70%), SOL (60%), XRP (50%), DOGE (20%).

Market Demand

LTC and ADA have some demand due to their technological maturity and community support; SOL benefits from the DeFi and NFT ecosystem but is negatively impacted by the MEME market downturn; XRP has attention from institutional investors; DOGE relies more on retail investor sentiment, leading to potentially limited scale.

III. ETF Underlying Assets Overview and Token Price Performance in the Last Month

ADA (Cardano)

Overview: Cardano is an open-source blockchain platform that focuses on academic research and sustainability, supporting smart contract and DApp development.

Performance in the Last Month (January 18, 2025 - February 18, 2025): Price dropped from $1 to $0.74, a decrease of approximately 26.41%.

XRP (Ripple)

Overview: XRP, supported by Ripple Labs, focuses on cross-border payments, emphasizing fast and low-cost transactions.

Performance in the Last Month: Price dropped from around $3.09 to $2.56, a decrease of approximately 18.45%.

SOL (Solana)

Overview: Solana is a high-performance public blockchain known for its high throughput and low latency, widely used in MEME, RWA, DeFi, and NFT.

Performance in the Last Month: Price dropped from around $242 to $169, a decrease of approximately 31.91%.

LTC (Litecoin)

Overview: Litecoin is a Bitcoin fork coin, positioned as the "silver to Bitcoin's gold," with faster transaction speeds and lower fees.

Performance in the Last Month: Price increased from around $117 to $131.33, a gain of approximately 11.46%, driven by ETF applications and market sentiment.

DOGE (Dogecoin)

Overview: Dogecoin originated from meme culture, now a top-market-cap cryptocurrency driven by the community and celebrities like Musk.

One-Month Performance: The price dropped from around $0.35 to $0.25 in the past month, a decrease of approximately 29.19%, with high volatility.

Summary

As of February 19, 2025, the cryptocurrency ETF market has seen a new wave of enthusiasm, with multiple institutions submitting spot ETF applications for ADA (Cardano), XRP, SOL (Solana), LTC (Litecoin), and DOGE (Dogecoin), further integrating crypto assets into traditional finance. Leading the applications are asset management giants such as Grayscale, Bitwise, and VanEck, with varying progress: LTC and ADA have a higher probability of approval due to their technological maturity and regulatory friendliness, while SOL and XRP need to overcome the "security" definition controversy, and DOGE faces greater uncertainty due to its meme nature. The review period is heavily concentrated between March and May 2025, with the SEC's new leadership injecting optimistic expectations for approval.

In terms of underlying asset performance, influenced by the overall market correction in the past month, the decline ranged from 20% to 30%. Feasibility analysis indicates that regulatory easing, market demand, and technological maturity are key driving factors for ETF approval, but legal risks remain a significant challenge. In the coming months, investors and industry observers need to closely monitor the SEC's final responses as cryptocurrency ETFs may become a significant indicator of the 2025 crypto market.

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