Musk referred to the release of the Grok new model this year, with the current probability of release during the year standing at only 23%.

BlockBeats News, December 15th, according to PolyBeats, Musk posted on December 7th that Grok 4.20 would be released in 3 to 4 weeks. Subsequently, on the 10th, he reconfirmed that Grok 4.20 would be released within three weeks, sparking discussions in the market about the exact release date of Grok 4.20 and the establishment of a series of markets asking, "Will Grok 4.20 be released before X month X day?"

Based on Musk's tweets, Grok 4.20 should be released by December 31st, but the current probability of releasing before December 31st is only 23%: Considering the engineering team may slow down work due to the Christmas and New Year holidays, the market generally believes that the likelihood of release by the end of the year is low.

Currently, the probabilities for three other date points are as follows: January 15th 75%, January 31st 83%, and April 20th 96%.