JPMorgan and Goldman raise gold price targets; will on-chain finance welcome a new reserve asset cycle?

Recently, two leading Wall Street investment banks, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have successively raised their target prices and long-term expectations for gold. JPMorgan has maintained its forecast for the end of 2026 while increasing the long-term price "anchor" level; Goldman Sachs attributes the upward momentum in gold prices to continued central bank buying and macro risk hedging demand.

This is not only a correction in price judgment but also a reaffirmation of the asset's role. As gold is once again placed at the core of "long-term reserve assets," a more pressing question begins to emerge for the on-chain world: Does on-chain finance already possess the structural capability to support reserve assets?

Behind the Rise of Gold is the Strengthening of Reserve Logic

The recent institutional upgrades in expectations are not merely based on short-term supply and demand but stem from more macro structural changes: fluctuations in the credibility of monetary policy, rising geopolitical risks, and a global asset allocation rebalancing. In this context, gold is once again incorporated into the balance sheet narrative. It is no longer just a trading hedging tool but an asset for value anchoring and long-term risk hedging.

When assets are redefined as reserve tools, the market evaluation criteria also change—the focus shifts from volatility and liquidity to:

• Is the structure robust?
• Is the legal framework clear?
• Is the verification mechanism sustainable?
• Can it operate stably across different market cycles?

This also raises higher requirements for the on-chain version of gold.

RWA Enters the Second Stage: From "Can It Be On-Chain?" to "Can It Support?"

The first stage of real asset tokenization addresses the question of "Can it be tokenized?" Gold, as one of the most standardized physical assets globally, naturally became an early sample. However, as the reserve logic strengthens, discussions on-chain begin to shift to more fundamental questions: Can these assets support institutional balance sheets? Do they have cross-cycle operational capabilities? Can they become the value anchor of on-chain finance?

In the "Matrixdock Outlook 2026," Matrixdock introduces the concept of "Reserve Layer" to describe an on-chain foundational asset layer composed of regulated, high-quality, verifiable tokenized assets. The goal of this layer is to provide value anchoring and liquidity support for on-chain finance and to operate stably across different market cycles. In other words, the Reserve Layer is not merely a stack of assets but a structural standard.

Structural Capability is Becoming a Watershed

Within this framework, "institutional-grade" is more about structural capability than a marketing label. Its core lies in whether the assets possess:

• Bankruptcy-remote legal structure design
• Clear regulatory and legal framework support
• Independent third-party audit mechanisms
• Redemption and circulation mechanisms that can operate under real market conditions
• Structural compatibility that supports institutional balance sheet holdings and integration

As gold is reintroduced into the long-term reserve framework by traditional institutions, whether the on-chain version possesses equally rigorous structural and verification standards will become a critical watershed.

XAUm: A Structural Practice of "Reserve Layer Asset"

In this context, the design concept of Matrixdock Gold (XAUm) is noteworthy. Within its Outlook framework, XAUm is constructed to undertake on-chain reserve functions, not merely as a digital representation of physical gold. Its structure emphasizes:

• 1:1 backing by physical gold that meets LBMA standards
• Bankruptcy-remote legal structure design
• Storage by professional vaults
• Acceptance of independent third-party audits
• Integration with on-chain Proof-of-Reserve (PoR) mechanisms
• Traceable verification of tokens and gold bars through the Allocation Lookup tool

This design aligns more closely with traditional institutions' requirements for reserve assets rather than merely pursuing on-chain liquidity efficiency.

If a Reserve Cycle Forms, the Logic of Competition May Change

If this round of institutional repricing of gold is not just a temporary judgment but a structural strengthening of reserve logic, then on-chain finance may usher in a new cycle—this may not necessarily be a transaction-driven bull-bear transition but rather a process of upgrading the foundational asset layer.

Thus, the focus of competition may shift from scale and flow to:

• Who can build a regulated, verifiable Reserve Layer
• Who can provide institutional-grade structural capability
• Who can achieve cross-cycle stability standards in legal, custody, and verification aspects

Reserve assets will not automatically possess reserve attributes simply by being "on-chain." They must earn this identity through structure, legal, and verification mechanisms. Whether the Reserve Layer will become the core of the next stage of on-chain finance remains to be seen. However, it is certain that as traditional finance reinforces gold's strategic position, the on-chain world is also undergoing a structural selection process.

References:

++https://www.thestreet.com/investing/goldman-sachs-revamps-gold-price-target-for-the-rest-of-2026++

++https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jpmorgan-revamps-long-term-gold-price-target++