Artificial Intelligence: Navigating a Transformational Cycle in Technology

By: crypto insight|2025/11/27 17:00:08

Key Takeaways

Every ten to fifteen years, the tech industry undergoes significant platform changes, fundamentally reshaping its landscape.
The current AI investment surge, involving major companies, predicts into 2025, surpassing $400 billion in capital expenditures.
Technological advancements may turn AI into a commodity, altering how companies capture value within this space.
While ChatGPT claims significant user engagement, real user interaction levels suggest room for growth in daily integration.

WEEX Crypto News, 2025-11-27 08:58:24

In an era defined by rapid technological evolution, artificial intelligence has emerged as a pivotal driver of industry transformation. Benedict Evans, a prominent tech analyst and former partner at Andreessen Horowitz, discusses this seismic shift in a report, “AI Eats the World.” This analysis posits that generative AI is fueling a once-in-a-decade migration, potentially beginning in 2022 with the rise of ChatGPT. The question remains: where will this journey take us?

The Recurring Revolution: Platform Shifts in Technology

Historically, technology has thrived on waves of platform shifts every dozen years or so. From mainframes to personal computers, then to smartphones, each wave brought monumental changes, restructuring the industry. For instance, Microsoft historically held a virtual monopoly in the PC operating system domain. However, as focus shifted to mobile, its dominance waned dramatically, illustrating the harsh reality of platform transitions.

Apple once led the personal computer market, yet was overshadowed by IBM-compatible systems. It’s these very upheavals that redefine the playing field, and according to Evans, early leaders often falter as new paradigms emerge.

The present situation with generative AI, like its predecessors AOL and Yahoo in the internet’s nascent days, reveals a plethora of potential and uncertainty. From browsing to intelligent interactions, the possible innovations are endless, yet definitive answers remain elusive.

The Unprecedented Investment Surge in AI Infrastructure

The scope of investment in AI today is unparalleled. With Microsoft, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google, and Meta leading the charge, by 2025 their cumulative capital expenditure is projected to hit an astonishing $400 billion. This far exceeds the current annual global telecommunications investment, which sits around $300 billion. This push necessitates the construction of data centers on a scale surpassing office building projects.

Yet this rapid growth is not without challenges. Companies like Nvidia face supply bottlenecks as demand outpaces their ability to deliver, with their quarterly revenue surpassing Intel’s longstanding figures. Similarly, TSMC encounters obstacles in rapidly expanding production capabilities to meet Nvidia’s orders.

The limitations in infrastructure, underscored by power supply constraints in the U.S., reflect the complexities of accommodating AI-driven growth. With electricity demand rising by about 2% annually, the additional 1% AI load poses difficulties, unlike in China where infrastructure adaptation is more feasible.

Commodification of AI Models: The Erosion of Competitive Moats

Despite massive investments, the performance gap between top-tier language models is narrowing to single-digit percentages in benchmark tests. This trend signals a potential commodification of AI models, reshaping how companies capture value. Evans warns that as models converge to common performance levels, they risk transforming into commodities, diluting competitive distinctions.

The market’s response includes Emergent features, Chinese participation, open-source initiatives, and new technological abbreviations. Evans posits that defining a robust competitive moat requires firms to leverage computational power, vertical data integration, user experience, or distribution channels more effectively than competitors.

The Reality of User Engagement: ChatGPT’s Need for Deeper Integration

ChatGPT’s claim of having 800 million weekly active users paints a rosy picture, but underlying user engagement data tells another story. In surveys, notably from Deloitte, it appears that only a small fraction, around 10% of U.S. users, engage with AI chatbots daily. This suggests that while the reach of AI is broad, deeper, consistent integration remains a work in progress.

This engagement dilemma raises questions about user scenarios. How many are intuitively suited for AI enhancement? How many users have flexible work environments seeking optimization, or must AI become embedded within tools and products for broader adoption?

Corporate adoption lags similarly. Despite enthusiasm, many AI projects have yet to transition from concept to production environments. As it stands, only 25% of businesses have deployed AI, 30% plan for later in 2025, and about 40% eye timelines extending to 2026 or beyond. Current AI applications, such as programming assistance, marketing optimization, and automated customer support, signal an “absorption stage,” yet are far from complete operational reinvention.

Transformative Opportunities in Advertising and Recommendations

Advertising and recommendation systems are poised for the most immediate innovations with AI. Traditionally reliant on “relevance,” AI’s potential to comprehend “user intent” offers a paradigm shift. This development could rewrite the mechanisms of the trillion-dollar ad industry.

Google and Meta have shared initial findings indicating AI-augmented ad placements achieving conversion rate improvements of 3% to 14%. Moreover, the cost of ad creative production, currently a $100 billion annual market, stands to be further transformed by AI-driven automation.

The Inevitable Vanishing Point of “AI” as a Buzzword

Reflecting back to 1956’s U.S. Congress automation report, every wave of automation has sparked significant discourse, eventually integrating silently into the infrastructure. The disappearance of elevator operators and the revolutionary impact of barcodes exemplify how technologies transition from novelties to mundane necessities.

Evans underscores this historical context: AI’s future is both known and unknown. While it is positioned to redefine industries, the ultimate form of its integration, the key players dominating the value chain, and the boundaries of its growth remain uncertain. AI emerges as the protagonist of this new 15-year cycle, though the full plot has yet to unfold. We may very well be on the precipice of the next technological seismic shift.

Future of Value Capture: From Network Effects to Capital Competition

As AI models face the risks of commoditization lacking network effects, value capture becomes a central concern. Evans outlines potential strategies: succeeding with scale, leveraging network effects and superior products, or discovering new competitive dimensions.

Microsoft exemplifies a shift from moats based on network effects to those driven by capital acquisition. Its capital expenditure-to-sales ratio has surged dramatically from historical lows, signifying a fundamental change in competitive strategy.

OpenAI, meanwhile, adopts an all-encompassing approach. Its partnerships with Oracle, Nvidia, Intel, Broadcom, and AMD, alongside diverse ventures spanning e-commerce, advertising, vertical data integration, and platforms like social video and web browsers, illustrate its quest for dominance across multiple fronts.

FAQs

How often does the tech industry undergo major changes?

The tech industry typically experiences significant transformations every 10 to 15 years, often driven by new platform shifts.

Why are major companies investing so heavily in AI infrastructure?

Companies are making substantial investments in AI to capture emerging opportunities, which might surpass the scale of traditional sectors, like telecommunications.

What issues do AI businesses face as the technology progresses?

Businesses face the challenge of commodification as model performances begin to converge, necessitating new strategies for maintaining competitive advantages.

How engaged are users with AI technologies like ChatGPT?

While AI technologies claim extensive reach, real engagement levels suggest many users are not yet incorporating these tools into their daily routines.

What impact could AI have on advertising and recommendation systems?

AI has the potential to revolutionize advertising by shifting from relevance-based systems to ones that understand user intent, likely transforming market dynamics.

In conclusion, the trajectory of AI within the tech landscape is an amalgamation of anticipated advancements and unpredictable outcomes. As industries brace for change, the path forward will not only be determined by technological capabilities but also by strategic ingenuity and the ability to integrate seamlessly into everyday life.

Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:

To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:

Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:

I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities

(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.

The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.

A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.

（II）Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.

Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.

II. Sound Work Mechanism

(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.

(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal

(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.

(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.

(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.

(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.

（IX） Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.

（X） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.

（XI） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.

（XII） Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.

IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities

（XIII） Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.

（XIV） Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.

(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.

V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation

(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.

VI. Legal Responsibility

(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.

(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.

This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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